The Demographic Cliff

How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019

The Demographic Cliff

Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a “great deflation” after five years of desperate stimulus — and what to do about it now Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world. Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy. But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation—weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019. Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. For instance . . . BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. If you don’t, the economy will do it for you, more painfully and less profitably. INVESTORS should sell stocks by mid-January 2014 and look to buy them back in 2015 or later at a Dow as low as 5,800. FAMILIES should wait to buy real estate in areas where home prices have gone back to where the bubble started in early 2000. GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983–2008. Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn’t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.

Portugal: Selected Issues Paper

Portugal: Selected Issues Paper

Selected Issues Paper

Coloniality in the Cliff Swallow

The Effect of Group Size on Social Behavior

Coloniality in the Cliff Swallow

Many animal species live and breed in colonies. Although biologists have documented numerous costs and benefits of group living, such as increased competition for limited resources and more pairs of eyes to watch for predators, they often still do not agree on why coloniality evolved in the first place. Drawing on their twelve-year study of a population of cliff swallows in Nebraska, the Browns investigate twenty-six social and ecological costs and benefits of coloniality, many never before addressed in a systematic way for any species. They explore how these costs and benefits are reflected in reproductive success and survivorship, and speculate on the evolution of cliff swallow coloniality. This work, the most comprehensive and detailed study of vertebrate coloniality to date, will be of interest to all who study social animals, including behavioral ecologists, population biologists, ornithologists, and parasitologists. Its focus on the evolution of coloniality will also appeal to evolutionary biologists and to psychologists studying decision making in animals.

Zero Hour

Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage

Zero Hour

Harry S. Dent Jr., bestselling author of The Demographic Cliff and The Sale of a Lifetime, predicted the populist wave that has driven the Brexit vote, the election of Donald Trump, and other recent shocks around the world. Now he returns with the definitive guide to protect your investments and prosper in the age of the anti-globalist backlash. The turn of the 2020s will mark an extremely rare convergence of low points for multiple political, economic, and demographic cycles. The result will be a major financial crash and global upheaval that will dwarf the Great Recession of the 2000s—and maybe even the Great Depression of the 1930s. We’re facing the onset of what Dent calls “Economic Winter.” In Zero Hour, he and Andrew Pancholi (author of The Market Timing Report newsletter) explain all of these cycles, which influence everything from currency valuations to election returns, from economic growth rates in Asia to birthrates in Europe. You’ll learn, for instance: • Why the most-hyped technologies of recent years (self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, blockchain) won’t pay off until the 2030s. • Why China may be the biggest bubble in the global economy (and you’d be a fool to invest there). • Why you should invest in the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, and pull out of real estate and automotive. • Why putting your faith in gold is a bad idea. Fortunately, Zero Hour includes a range of practical strategies to help you turn the upheaval ahead to your advantage, so your family can be prepared and protected.

Society, Health and Population During the Demographic Transition

Society, Health and Population During the Demographic Transition

August 18-21, 1986 Umea University hosted an international conference on the theme Society, health and population during the demographic transition. The following sessions were organized: infant, child and maternal mortality; causes of death and classification of diseases; urban disease and mortality; society and medicine; health and nutrition; and changes and patterns in rural mortality. different disciplines in many countries when analyzing the determinants behind the changes in mortality during the demographic transition are reflected in this report volume from the conference. demographic data base, which dataprocesses Swedish parish registration material from the 19th century, is a permanent department at the university. Umea is also a centre for interdisciplinary research on Swedish historical demography."

Death and the Metropolis

Studies in the Demographic History of London, 1670-1830

Death and the Metropolis

A powerful analysis of demographic patterns in London over the 'long eighteenth century', concentrating on mortality but also including data on marital fertility, population structure and migration. The evidence indicates that mortality in London was generally much higher than in other settlements in England.

Generation Unbound

Drifting into Sex and Parenthood without Marriage

Generation Unbound

Over half of all births to young adults in the United States now occur outside of marriage, and many are unplanned. The result is increased poverty and inequality for children. The left argues for more social support for unmarried parents; the right argues for a return to traditional marriage. In Generation Unbound, Isabel V. Sawhill offers a third approach: change "drifters" into "planners." In a well-written and accessible survey of the impact of family structure on child well-being, Sawhill contrasts "planners," who are delaying parenthood until after they marry, with "drifters," who are having unplanned children early and outside of marriage. These two distinct patterns are contributing to an emerging class divide and threatening social mobility in the United States. Sawhill draws on insights from the new field of behavioral economics, showing that it is possible, by changing the default, to move from a culture that accepts a high number of unplanned pregnancies to a culture in which adults only have children when they are ready to be a parent.

Fearful Symmetry

The Fall and Rise of Canada's Founding Values

Fearful Symmetry

In the 1960s, Canada began a seismic shift away from the core policies and values upon which the country had been built. A nation of 'makers' transformed itself into a nation of 'takers.' Crowley argues that the time has come for the pendulum to swing back'back to a time when Canadians were less willing to rely on the state for support; when people went where the work was rather than waiting for the work to come to them. Thought-provoking, meticulously detailed and ultimately polarizing, Fearful Symmetry is required reading for anyone who is interested in where this country began, where it's been, and where it's going.